Interval Estimates

import type { ReactNode } from "react";
import type { Props } from "./schema";


const fmt = (n: number) => Number.isInteger(n) ? n.toLocaleString("ja-JP") : n.toLocaleString("ja-JP", {maximumFractionDigits: 2});
const colors = ["var(--color-tertiary)", "var(--color-primary)", "var(--color-secondary)", "var(--color-accent-violet)"];
function Ledger({heads,rows,caption}:{heads:string[];rows:ReactNode[][];caption?:string}) { return <table className="ledger">{caption && <caption>{caption}</caption>}<thead><tr>{heads.map((h,i)=><th key={i} scope="col">{h}</th>)}</tr></thead><tbody>{rows.map((r,i)=><tr key={i}>{r.map((v,j)=><td key={j} data-label={heads[j]}>{v}</td>)}</tr>)}</tbody></table>; }
function Notes({children}:{children:ReactNode}) { return <details><summary>データ・判断条件を確認</summary>{children}</details>; }

const CSS = String.raw`
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.asset *{box-sizing:border-box}.asset header{margin-bottom:2rem}.asset .eyebrow{font-family:var(--font-mono);font-size:var(--text-label);letter-spacing:.08em;color:var(--color-secondary);margin-bottom:.75rem}.asset h1{font-size:var(--text-h1);font-weight:700;line-height:1.35;letter-spacing:-.025em;max-width:32em}.asset h2{font-size:var(--text-h3);font-weight:600;margin-bottom:.75rem}.asset h3{font-size:var(--text-body-md);font-weight:600}.asset .subtitle,.asset .muted{color:var(--color-secondary)}.asset .subtitle{margin-top:.75rem}.asset .number{font-variant-numeric:tabular-nums;font-family:var(--font-mono)}.asset .hero-number{font-size:var(--text-display);line-height:1.2;font-weight:700;letter-spacing:-.04em}.asset .callout{border-left:.25rem solid var(--color-tertiary);padding:1rem 1.5rem;background:var(--color-surface-subtle);margin-bottom:1.5rem}.asset .grid2{display:grid;grid-template-columns:1fr 1fr;gap:1.5rem}.asset .grid3{display:grid;grid-template-columns:repeat(3,minmax(0,1fr));gap:1.5rem}.asset .panel{padding:1.5rem;background:var(--color-surface-subtle);border-radius:var(--radius-md);min-width:0}.asset .rule{border-top:1px solid var(--color-outline);padding-top:1rem;margin-top:1rem}.asset .pill{display:inline-block;padding:.25rem .75rem;border:1px solid var(--color-outline);border-radius:var(--radius-full);font-size:var(--text-label)}.asset .focus{background:var(--color-tertiary-container);color:var(--color-on-tertiary-container)}.asset .dark{background:var(--color-primary);color:var(--color-on-primary)}.asset .dark .muted{color:var(--color-on-primary-container)}.asset .row{display:grid;grid-template-columns:12rem minmax(0,1fr) 6rem;gap:1rem;align-items:center;padding:.75rem 0;border-bottom:1px solid var(--color-outline)}.asset .row>*{min-width:0}.asset .track{height:1rem;position:relative;background:var(--color-neutral);border-radius:var(--radius-sm)}.asset .bar{height:100%;background:var(--color-tertiary);border-radius:var(--radius-sm)}.asset .track.tall{height:2rem}.asset .flex{display:flex;gap:1rem;align-items:center;justify-content:space-between;flex-wrap:wrap}.asset .stack>*+*{margin-top:1rem}.asset ul{list-style:disc;padding-left:1.25rem}.asset li+li{margin-top:.5rem}.asset .plot{display:block;width:100%;height:auto;overflow:visible}.asset .plot text{font-family:var(--font-sans);font-size:14px;fill:var(--color-secondary)}.asset .plot .ink{fill:var(--color-primary)}.asset .plot .axis{stroke:var(--color-outline);stroke-width:1}.asset .plot .accent{stroke:var(--color-tertiary);fill:none;stroke-width:3}.asset .legend{display:flex;gap:1.5rem;flex-wrap:wrap;font-size:var(--text-label);margin-bottom:1rem}.asset .legend b{display:inline-block;width:.75rem;height:.75rem;margin-right:.5rem}.asset .ledger{border-collapse:collapse;width:100%;font-variant-numeric:tabular-nums}.asset .ledger caption{text-align:left;font-weight:600;margin:1rem 0}.asset .ledger th{font-weight:600;color:var(--color-secondary);text-align:left}.asset .ledger th,.asset .ledger td{padding:.75rem 1rem;border-bottom:1px solid var(--color-outline);vertical-align:top;overflow-wrap:anywhere}.asset .ledger th:first-child,.asset .ledger td:first-child{padding-left:0}.asset .ledger th:last-child,.asset .ledger td:last-child{padding-right:0}.asset .ledger tbody tr:hover{background:var(--color-surface-subtle)}.asset details{border-top:1px solid var(--color-outline);margin-top:1.5rem;padding-top:1rem}.asset summary{cursor:pointer;color:var(--color-secondary);padding:.5rem 0;min-height:2.75rem}.asset summary:focus-visible{outline:2px solid var(--color-tertiary);outline-offset:.25rem}.asset .small{font-size:var(--text-label)}.asset .mobile-only{display:none}.asset .horizontal-list{display:grid;grid-template-columns:repeat(3,minmax(0,1fr));gap:1rem}.asset .board-column{border-top:.25rem solid var(--color-primary);padding-top:1rem;min-width:0}.asset .board-item{padding:1rem 0;border-bottom:1px solid var(--color-outline)}.asset .board-item p{margin-top:.5rem}.asset .statement{font-size:var(--text-h2);line-height:1.5;font-weight:600}.asset .meta-line{margin-top:.75rem;font-size:var(--text-label);color:var(--color-secondary)}.asset pre{white-space:pre-wrap;overflow-wrap:anywhere}.asset footer{margin-top:2rem;font-size:var(--text-label);color:var(--color-secondary)}
@media(max-width:640px){.asset{padding:1.5rem 1rem}.asset h1{font-size:var(--text-h2)}.asset header{margin-bottom:1.5rem}.asset .grid2,.asset .grid3,.asset .horizontal-list{grid-template-columns:1fr}.asset .row{grid-template-columns:minmax(0,1fr) 5rem;gap:.5rem}.asset .row>:first-child{grid-column:1/-1}.asset .desktop-only{display:none!important}.asset .mobile-only{display:block}.asset .panel{padding:1rem}.asset .ledger,.asset .ledger tbody,.asset .ledger tr,.asset .ledger td{display:block}.asset .ledger thead{display:none}.asset .ledger tr{padding:.75rem 0;border-bottom:1px solid var(--color-outline)}.asset .ledger td{display:grid;grid-template-columns:7rem minmax(0,1fr);gap:.75rem;border:0;padding:.25rem 0!important}.asset .ledger td:before{content:attr(data-label);color:var(--color-secondary);font-size:var(--text-label)}.asset .hero-number{font-size:var(--text-h1)}}
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`;

export default function Template(d: Props) {
const lo=Math.min(...d.items.map(r=>r.low)),hi=Math.max(...d.items.map(r=>r.high));const x=(v:number)=>(v-lo)/(hi-lo||1)*100;
return <section className="asset asset-interval-estimates"><style>{CSS}</style><header><p className="eyebrow">INTERVAL ESTIMATES</p><h1>{d.title}</h1>{d.subtitle && <p className="subtitle">{d.subtitle}</p>}</header>
<p className="callout">{d.intervalLabel}</p>{d.items.map((r,i)=><div className="row" key={i}><strong>{r.label}</strong><div style={{position:"relative",height:"2rem",margin:"0 .5rem"}}><span style={{position:"absolute",left:x(r.low)+"%",width:(x(r.high)-x(r.low))+"%",top:".75rem",height:".5rem",background:"var(--color-tertiary-container)",borderLeft:"2px solid var(--color-tertiary)",borderRight:"2px solid var(--color-tertiary)"}}/><span style={{position:"absolute",left:x(r.estimate)+"%",top:".6rem",width:".8rem",height:".8rem",borderRadius:"50%",background:colors[0],transform:"translateX(-50%)"}}/></div><strong className="number">{fmt(r.estimate)}</strong></div>)}<Ledger heads={["施策","下限","推定","上限"]} rows={d.items.map(r=>[r.label,fmt(r.low)+d.unit,fmt(r.estimate)+d.unit,fmt(r.high)+d.unit])}/><Notes><p>区間の重なりだけで有意差の有無を判定しません。点推定を確定値として扱わないでください。</p></Notes>
<footer>区間の定義と単位を併記する。</footer></section>;
}

import { z } from "zod";
const text = z.string().trim().min(1).max(160);
const short = z.string().trim().min(1).max(48);
const value = z.number().finite();
const positive = value.positive();

export const schema = z.object({
  title: text.describe("結論を伝える見出し"),
  subtitle: text.optional().describe("出典・時点・母集団や仮定"),
  unit:short.describe("共通単位"), intervalLabel:text.describe("区間の定義。例：95%信頼区間、最小〜最大"),
  items:z.array(z.object({label:short,low:value,estimate:value,high:value}).strict()).min(2).max(8).describe("下限・点推定・上限"),
}).strict().refine(d=>d.items.every(r=>r.low<=r.estimate&&r.estimate<=r.high),"下限≦推定≦上限");
export type Props = z.infer<typeof schema>;

id: interval-estimates
name:
  ja: 推定値と区間
  en: Interval Estimates
purpose:
  ja: 点推定と上下限を示し、区間の重なりを含めて比較する。
  en: Interval Estimates with explicit source values and reading conditions.
status: published
still: ./still.png
category: analysis
catalogOrder: 290
jobs:
  - measure-change
useCases:
  - kpi
layoutKinds:
  - stack
tags:
  - interval-estimates
  - analysis
  - offline
  - responsive
whenToUse:
  - ja: 点推定と上下限を示し、区間の重なりを含めて比較する。
    en: Use to communicate interval estimates.
avoidWhen:
  - ja: 同じ条件・単位で比較できないデータには使わない
    en: Do not compare values with incompatible units, populations, or assumptions.
requiredInputs:
  - ja: 区間の定義と単位を併記する。
    en: Provide the source values, labels and decision conditions described by the schema.
relatedLayouts: []
dataSchema:
  title: string — 結論を伝える見出し
  subtitle: string? — 出典・時点・母集団や仮定
  unit: string — 共通単位
  intervalLabel: string — 区間の定義。例：95%信頼区間、最小〜最大
  items: array (label, low, estimate, high) — 下限・点推定・上限
sources: []

{
  "title": "施策Bは期待効果が大きいが、推定幅も広い",
  "subtitle": "架空サンプル｜レイアウトの使用例",
  "unit": "時間/月",
  "intervalLabel": "シナリオ下限〜上限（信頼区間ではない）",
  "items": [
    {
      "label": "施策A",
      "low": 80,
      "estimate": 100,
      "high": 120
    },
    {
      "label": "施策B",
      "low": 90,
      "estimate": 145,
      "high": 200
    },
    {
      "label": "施策C",
      "low": 60,
      "estimate": 85,
      "high": 110
    },
    {
      "label": "施策D",
      "low": 100,
      "estimate": 125,
      "high": 150
    }
  ]
}